Severe Weather Threat Jul 23-27

Models Are In Good Agreement Showing A Mean Trough Over The Nern U.S. With A Ridge Over The Srn Rockies And Plains.

While Significant Timing Differences Do Exist With Shortwaves Moving Within The Trough From The Great Lakes Into The Nern States Through The D4-8 Period...This Should Largely Be Irrelevant In Terms Of Significant Severe Weather As None Of The Potential Systems Appear Likely To Produce More Than Isolated To Scattered Marginal Severe Wind Or Hail.

One Such Marginal Severe Day Could Be Tue/D4 Across Nrn Ny And Nrn New England As The Main Trough Moves Ewd Across Ontario And Quebec With A Trailing Cold Front. However...Some Models Solutions Including The Ecmwf Suggest Most Of The Severe Potential Could Remain N Of The U.S. Border.

Other Strong Daytime Storms Are Likely From The Oh Valley Into Pa On Wed/D5 Due To Relatively Cool Temperatures Aloft With A Weak Upper Thermal Trough. Winds Aloft Will Be Weak And Only Marginal Hail Or Wind Will Be Possible.

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