Severe Weather Threat Jul 21-25

The Upcoming Pattern Is One In Which Northwest Flow Across The
Rockies And High Plains Will Act To Maintain A Plume Of Steeper
Mid-Level Lapse Rates Downstream Across The Great Plains And

Low Amplitude Disturbances In The Northwest Flow...Some Or Most Of Convective Origin...In Concert With Heating And Seasonably High Theta-E Air...Should Favor Almost Daily/Nightly Mcs Development
Somewhere Over The Cntrl/Nrn Conus.

Additionally...Widespread Diurnal Convection Appears Quite Likely Over Much Of The East Given Lower Heights/Cooler Air Aloft And Supportive Background Ascent Within The Base Of The Mean Trough In This Region...When Combined With Seasonably Warm/Moist Boundary Layer Airmass.

Despite The Consistency In Model Forecasts Supporting The Large
Scale Pattern And Regions Where Greater Storm Coverage May
Occur...Any Enhanced Severe Weather Potential During The Next Week Will More Than Likely Be Driven By Convective-Scale Details That Have Yet To Form. Thus...The Extended Forecast For Severe Tstm Development Is Characterized By Low Predictability.

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