Severe Weather Threat Jul 2-6

The Medium Range Models Show An Upper-Level Low Over The Mid-Ms Valley On Tuesday/Day 4.

The Models Move The Upper-Level Low Into The Upper Ms Valley On Wednesday/Day 5.

On Thursday/Day 6...The System Becomes An Open Large-Scale Trough Extending From The Upper Ms Valley Swd Into The Srn Plains.

Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Each Day From Wednesday Through Friday On The Ern Side Of The System Across The Oh And Tn Valleys Extending Ewd Into The Appalachian Mtns.

If Severe Storms Were To Develop Over Parts Of The Ern States During The Early To Mid Week Timeframe...The Marginal Shear Profiles Forecast By The Models Would Suggest The Threat Would
Remain Isolated.

On Friday/Day 7...The Models Diverge With Their Solutions But Suggest That Convection Will Be Possible In The Nrn Plains.

Although A Substantial Amount Of Uncertainty Still Remains For The Day 4 To 8 Period...It Appears Unlikely That An Enhanced Severe Threat Will Develop.

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