Severe Weather Threat Jul 17-21

Multi-Day Severe Event Possible D5 Thu Jul 18 Thru D7 Sun Jul 20.

Medium Range Guidance From The Gfs...Ecmwf And Cmc Global Modeling Systems Has Been Consistent With The Large Scale Pattern Evolution During The D4-8 Period Showing Development Of Broad Long Wave Trough Moving Across Sern Canada...The Great Lakes And Nern States.

A Very Moist And Unstable Air Mass Is Likely To Be Present Over The
Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley And Into The Nern States On D4-5 In
Advance Of The Surface Low And Cold Front. This Will Increase The
Potential For Widespread Damaging Wind Gusts And Occasional Hail With Severe Storms Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front.

D5 /Thu Jul 18/...Severe Storm Potential Is Expected To Increase By
Late Afternoon/Evening Over The Upper Ms Valley Along/North Of A
Warm Front...With Severe Storms Possibly Spreading Ewd During The Overnight Hours Toward The Great Lakes.

D6 /Fri Jul 19/...Severe Storm Potential Is Expected To Continue Ewd/Esewd Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front From The Great Lakes Into Nrn Parts Of The Nern States.

D7 /Sat Jul 20/...The Cold Front And Stronger Winds Aloft Will Move
Across The Remainder Of The Nern States And Nrn Middle Atlantic
Region Maintaining A Severe Threat Over This Area.

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