Severe Weather Threat Jul 10-14

Gfs...Ecmwf...Ecmwf Ensemble And Gefs Are In Reasonable Agreement Through Day 5 Regarding Evolution Of Synoptic Pattern ...But Become Increasingly Dispersive Day 6 And Beyond.

General Trend Will Be For Trough In The East To Undergo Significant Amplification Through Day 6 With An Upper Ridge Over Much Of The Wrn States. However...More Significant Differences Arise By Day 6...Especially Regarding The Handling Of Shortwave Energy Moving Through Nrn Periphery Of Upper Ridge Across The Pacific Nw And Nrn Rockies.

Day 4 /Wed/ Shortwave Trough From Day 3 Will Continue Through The Great Lakes And Become Absorbed Within A Broader Synoptic Trough. Attendant Sfc Low Will Develop Through Sern Canada With Trailing Front Continuing Swd Through The Great Lakes Into The Oh Valley. Areas Of Thunderstorms May Be Ongoing Along And Ahead Of The Front. Warm Sector Will Become Increasingly Shunted South Of The Stronger Winds Aloft Especially If Early Convection Is Extensive Enough To Consolidate A Large Outflow Boundary. Some Threat For Severe Multicell Storms May Exist Along/Ahead Of The Sewd Advancing Front/Outflow Boundary As The Atmosphere Destabilizes From The Oh Valley Into A Portion Of The Nern States. Due To The Potential Limiting Factors...Confidence In Where To Place A 30% Coverage Area Is Low.

Day 5 /Thu/ Sufficient Moisture May Have Returned Through The Cntrl
And Nrn High Plains Within Belt Of Faster Wly Flow Along Nrn
Periphery Of Upper Ridge To Support Possibility Of A Few Strong To
Severe Storms From The Wrn Dakotas Into Ern Mt. However...Overall
Threat Does Not Appear Particularly Robust At This Time.

A Few Strong Storms May Also Develop Ahead Of The Cold Front From The Mid Atlantic Into The Tn Valley Region.

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