Severe Weather Threat Jan 9-13

Considerable Discrepancy Begins To Emerge During The Medium Range Period Regarding The Ejecting Upper Low Across Tx.

The Gfs Is Substantially Faster And Farther North Than The Ecmwf By Day5 With A Deamplifying Short-Wave Over Sern Ontario At 11/12z While The Ecmwf Maintains A Closed Lower Near The Arklatex. For This Reason Extreme Uncertainty Regarding Severe Exists Beyond Wednesday.

During The Day4 Period There Is Sufficient Confidence Regarding The Potential For Strong Thunderstorm Development Across The Coastal Plains Of Tx Where Ample Low Level Moisture Will Have Spread Inland Prior To The Arrival Of Strong Mid Level Speed Max Ahead Of Pacific Front.

It Appears A Supercell Environment Will Exist Across The Aforementioned Region And Large Scale Forcing Should Support Tstm Development.

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