Severe Weather Threat Jan 8-12

There Is Increasing Confidence That A Significant Upper Low Will
Begin To Eject Ewd Across Nrn Mexico Into South Tx During The Day4-5 Time Frame.

However...The Gfs Is Considerably Faster Than The Ecmwf As It Moves The Center Of The Upper Low Into Cntrl Tx By 09/12z While The Ecmwf Is Nearly 300 Mi West Of This Location Over The Big Bend Region.

While Strong Mid Level Flow Should Rotate Through The Base Of The Trough Into East Tx At Some Point It/S Not Entirely Clear When This Will Occur. Additionally...The Prospect For Meaningful Destabilization Inland May Be Impeded By Substantial Precipitation Within The Warm Conveyor.

Given The Timing Differences And Possible Destabilization Issues Will Not Outlook An Organized Severe Area Mid Week Across Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley. However Later Model Guidance May Provide More Clarity Which Could Lead To Severe Probs Added For Portions Of This Region.

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