Severe Weather Threat Jan 15-19

Medium-Range Models Remain In Decent Large-Scale Agreement Through The Period...Maintaining A Large Vortex Invof Hudson Bay.

Sharp Troughing Extending From The Main Vortex Swd Into The U.S. Is Progged To Shift Ewd With Time...With Evolution Toward Flatter Cyclonic Flow Over The Ern 2/3 Of The U.S. Through The Remainder Of The Period.

With A Cold Front Initially Over The Sern U.S. Progged To Drift Slowly Sewd With Time Toward The Caribbean...A Cool/Stable Airmass Should Generally Prevail E Of The Rockies Through The Period.

Though The Ecmwf Hints At Some Increase In Convective Potential
Invof The Gulf Coast Through The Middle Part Of The Period As A
Surface Low Traverses This Region...The Gfs Does Not Support This
Scenario.

In Any Case...Overall Severe Threat Would Appear To Be Quite Low Through The Medium-Range Period.


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