Severe Weather Threat Jan 14-18

Medium-Range Models Are In Agreement That A Large Upper Trough Will Prevail Across The Ern Half Of Noam Through At Least The First Half Of The Period...With A Cold Front Shifting Increasingly Off The E
Coast And A Cool/Stable Low-Level Airmass In Its Wake.

As This Trough Retreats A Bit From The Sern U.S. Into The Northeast
U.S./Ern Canada...Some Potential For Srn Stream Troughing Could
Allow Some Moisture To Return To The Gulf Coast States In The Second Half Of The Period. However...This Is A Low-Confidence Scenario At This Point...As Model Disagreement Of This Smaller-Scale Evolution Is Substantial.

Overall...Little If Any Severe Potential Is Envisioned Early In The Period Ahead Of The Cold Front Vacating The E Coast...And Possibility Of A Relatively Widespread Threat Appears Unlikely Even
After Retreat Of The Large-Scale Upper Trough.

Thus...No Outlook Areas Will Be Initiated Through The Period.


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