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Severe Weather Threat Jan 13-17

Both The Ecmwf And Gfs Are Similar In Their Depiction Of Long Wave
Trough Remaining Positively Tilted And Extending From The Swrn U.S. Into The Upper Great Lakes Early Next Week.

This Orientation Will Not Prove Particularly Favorable For Significant Warm Sector Tstm Development Across The Lower Ms Valley/Gulf States...Though An Unforeseen Speed Max/Short-Wave Could Induce Weak Wave Along The Associated Cold Front That Could Enhance This Threat.

In All Likelihood The Majority Of Convection Should Remain Post-Frontal And Elevated In Nature Given The Lack Of Meaningful Low Level Convergence.

Organized Severe Threat Is Expected To Remain Less Than 30 Percent This Period.


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