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Severe Weather Threat Jan 1-5

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Over The Cntrl States.

The Models Move The System Ewd Across The Ms Valley On Tuesday /Day 4 As A Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Tuesday And Tuesday Night Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front.

On Wednesday/Day 5...The Models Redevelop An Upper-Level Trough In The Swrn States With This System Moving Out In To The Great Plains Wednesday Night. As This Occurs...Thunderstorms Will Again Be Possible In The Gulf Coast States With The Convective Potential Moving Ewd Into Fl On Thursday/Day 6.

At This Point...The Gfs And Ecmwf Differ Somewhat On The Amplitude Of The Upper-Level Trough And The Exact Timing Also Remains Questionable.

Although Thunderstorms Will Be Possible In The Gulf Coast States During The Mid-Week Timeframe...Predictability Concerning The Magnitude Of Any Severe Threat Remains Low.


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