Severe Weather Threat Jan 30 - Feb 3

There Is Reasonable Agreement Amongst The Latest Suite Of Guidance That A Powerful And Highly Amplified Upper Trough Will Make Rapid Progress Toward The Ern Seaboard Through Late D4/Wednesday.

A Mid Level Wind Max In Excess Of 100kt Is Forecast To Rotate Through The Base Of The Trough From The Tn Valley To The Mid Atlantic Coincident With The Advancing Cold Front Across These Areas.

Models Also Suggest That Low And Deep-Layer Moisture Will Increase Rapidly Immediately Ahead Of The Frontal Zone With Ecmwf Depicting A Plume Of At Least 1.5 Inch Pw Values Extending As Far North As Phl Area By Wednesday Evening.

Qpf And Vertical Motion Fields From Latest Ec And Gfs Models Suggest A Continuation And/Or Resurgence Of Convection Along Nearly The Entire Front Amidst Intense Cloud-Bearing Shear.

While Cape Across Much Of The Risk Area Will Remain Low...Expect
Boundary Layer Warming/Moistening To Become Sufficient Enough To
Support The Downward Transport Of High Momentum Air To The Surface With Damaging Winds Expected To Accompany The Passage Of The Convective Line.

The Strong Cold Front Should Be Clear Of All But Far Srn Fl By
D5/Thursday.

Cold And Dry Air In The Wake Of This System Appears To Shut Down Further Prospects For Strong To Severe Tstms At Least Through The Remainder Of The Week.


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