Severe Weather Threat Jan 29 - Feb 2

Latest Suite Of Model Guidance Presents A Better General Consensus In The Forecast Evolution Of The Large Scale Pattern Across The Conus Into The Middle Of Next Week...Especially When Compared To This Time Yesterday.

While There Remain Differences In The Configurations And Magnitudes Of The Various Flow Fields And Parameters...Analysis Of The Gfs/Ecmwf/Ukmet/Cmc/Gfs Ensemble And Dprog/Dt Loops Lend Sufficient Support For The Reintroduction Of A Severe Weather Forecast...Now Valid For D4/Tuesday...With A Continuing Threat Into At Least Part Of D5/Wednesday.

As Indicated In The D3 Otlk...A Warm Moist Boundary Layer Is
Expected To Reside Across The Scntrl U.S. Ahead Of A Strengthening
Large Scale Trough And Associated Developing Cold Front. While Ecmwf Continues To Forecast A Slightly Slower And Less Fully-Phased Upper Trough When Compared With Gfs/Ukmet Models...Even It Comes Around To Forecasting An Amplified And Substantially Phased Large Scale Upper Trough Across The Scntrl And Ern U.S. Beginning D4/Tuesday And Continuing Through D5/Wednesday.

This Process Will Contribute To A Rapid Onset Of Deep-Layer Ascent And Subsequent Tstm Development Along And Ahead Of A Sharpening Cold Front That Will Sweep Ewd/Sewd Across The Cntrl/Srn Plains During The Day Tuesday...And Then To The Tn Valley/Nrn Gulf Coast And Southeast Through Wednesday.

Shear And Instability As Currently Forecast Will Promote Organized Storms In Either Supercell Or Linear Forms From Northeast Tx Across The Arklatex To Sern Mo/Wrn Tn.

Squall Line Or Line Segment Evolution Should Become More Likely With Time As Cold Front/Convective Cold Pools Further Intensify Amidst Modest Instability. Damaging Winds...Possibly Widespread... Will Be The Greatest Hazard With This Convection. However...Low Level Shear Will Be Strong Enough For Tornadoes As Well.

Expect The Strong Forcing And Shear To Maintain A Qlsc With Damaging Wind Potential At Least Into The Tn Valley Through Early

Beyond This Time...Greater Model Spread And Resulting Uncertainty Begin To Impact Forecast Confidence In Severe Weather. Have Opted To Rely On Gfs Ensemble Joint Probability Forecasts For Instability And Shear Through Late Wednesday.

These Products Suggest That Severe Weather Potential Will Be Much More Uncertain With Ewd Extent Despite Strong Qpf And Uvv Signals Along The Advancing Front To The East Coast.

Portions Of The Southeast May Be Added In Later Outlooks If Model Consensus Improves.

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