Severe Weather Threat Jan 27-31

Model Trends Continue To Be Closely Monitored For The Possibility Of Significant Severe Weather Around Tue/D6 And Possibly Into Wed/D7.

Inspection Of The Ecmwf...Gfs...Cmc...Ukmet And Various Mref Members Reveals Very Good Agreement With The Pattern Evolution Through About 108 Hours Or Valid Mon/D5 At 12z.

Although Differences Exist Further Out...They Are Mostly In Relation To Timing And Location Of The Likely Severe Threat.

A Weak Lead Shortwave Trough Is Expected To De-Amplify Across The Mid Ms Valley On Sun/D4...With A Subtle Upper Ridge Across The Oh/Tn Valleys.

This Pattern Will Maintain Sely Flow Across The Gulf Of Mexico Around The Surface High Which Should Be Centered Just Off The
Mid Atlantic Coast On Mon/D5.

As Such...Low Level Moisture Will Continue To Increase With Mid 60s F Boundary Layer Dewpoints As Far N As Dallas.

Since The Quality Of The Low Level Moisture Return Does Not Appear
To Be In Question...Attention Turns To The Timing Of The Wrn Trough.

Virtually All Models Show A Large Trough That Will Move Ewd Into The
Plains Around Tue/D6 And Will Continue Ewd Through D8.

Models Are In Good Agreement With Depicting A Leading Shortwave
Moving Across The Cntrl And Srn Plains And Into The Ms Valley By Tue
Afternoon.

The Ecmwf Amplifies This Feature More Than The Operational Gfs... But Is In Agreement With The Cmc And A Few Mref Members.

In This Scenario...A Stronger Surface Low Forms From Ia Into Wi... Which Would Expand The Severe Threat Farther Nwd Across Il.

Even If The Less Amplified Gfs Situation Develops...Severe Would
Still Be Likely Across Much Of Ar And Nern Tx Where Larger Moisture
And Instability Would Be Present Along With Strong Shear. Have
Maintained Previous Area And Expanded Nwd And Ewd Slightly For
Tue/D6.

For Wed/D7...While The Gfs Appears To Be An Outlier Lagging The Main Trough Over The Four Corners...It Does Indicate The Potential For A Secondary Shortwave To Eject Ewd Across The Srn Plains And Low Ms Valley On Wed/D7...Then Continuing Toward The E Coast On D8.

The Most Likely Solution At This Time Looks To Be For A More Marginal Severe Threat Persisting Into Wed/D7 With Thunderstorms Along A Cold Front Across Much Of The Ern States.

However...Predictability For D7 And D8 Is Quite Low At This Time.


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