Severe Weather Threat Fri May 10

Tx To Lower Ms Valley...

One Or More Clusters Of Tstms Are Likely To Be Ongoing At The
Beginning Of The Period Within A Corridor From South-Central/ Southeast Tx Into Portions Of La/Ms. This Convection/Associated Outflow Will Likely Delineate An Effective Frontal Zone/Focus For Subsequent Deep Convective Development Into Friday Afternoon/ Evening As The Synoptic Frontal Zone Otherwise Continues To Slowly Shift Southward Across The Region.

Some Of The Aforementioned Early Day Storms May Be Capable Of
Isolated Severe Hail...But A More Probable Scenario Will Be For
Severe Tstms To Redevelop/Intensify In Vicinity Of The Effective
Frontal Zone During The Afternoon Across Portions Of West-Central/ South-Central Tx And Perhaps The Rio Grande Vicinity...While Other Storms May Persist In A Semi-Organized Fashion Across The Lower Ms Valley Including La/Ms. A Combination Of Supercells/Multicells Will Be Possible Especially Through Early Evening...With Possible Upscale Growth Into One Or More Eastward-Moving Clusters During The Evening/Overnight Hours Across The Region. Damaging Winds/Bouts Of Severe Hail Will Be The Primary Hazards Across The Region...With Supercell Modes/Large Hail Most Probable Across Portions Of West-Central/South-Central Tx.

Upper Oh Valley To Pa Vicinity/Mid-Atlantic States...

Scattered Tstms Are Expected To Develop/Increase Into The Afternoon
Along/Ahead Of A Cold Front Across The Upper Oh Valley/Pa Vicinity ...With Other Isolated Tstms Possible During The Afternoon Across Portions Of Md/Va/Nc In Vicinity Of A Lee Trough. Moist Advection From The Southwest Will Be Occurring Immediately Ahead Of The Cold Front...Although Cloud Cover/Weak Lapse Rates Aloft Should
Temper Overall Destabilization /500-1000 J Per Kg Cape/ Across The
Upper Oh Valley/Pa. Even So...A Belt Of Moderate Mid-High Level
Flow...Largely Oriented Parallel To The Front...Will Support The
Development Of Semi-Organized/Sustained Line Segments Capable Of Bouts Of Damaging Winds And Some Hail Across The Region.

Farther South...Stronger Heating/Destabilization Is More Probable In
Vicinity Of The Lee Side Trough Across The Mid-Atlantic Region Friday Afternoon. A Conditional Potential For Downbursts Will Exist
Provided Storm Development During The Afternoon/Early Evening.


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