Severe Weather Threat Feb 20-24

The Latest Medium Range Forecast Guidance Maintains General Trends Of The Past Several Days Concerning A Major Upper Trough And Associated Strong Jet Streak That Appear Likely To Emerge From The Southwestern U.S. By The Middle Of The Coming Work Week.

The Trough Axis Still Appears Likely To Take On A Negative Tilt As It
Progresses Across The Southern Rockies Into The Central And Southern Plains By 12z Thursday...Before Lifting Northeastward And
Deamplifying Across The Upper Midwest On Friday.

Primary Surface Cyclogenesis Is Expected Across Eastern Colorado Into Western Kansas...But Models Indicate Secondary Wave Development From Parts Of Northwest Into Eastern Texas Wednesday Night.

This May Eventually Become The Focus For An Evolving Squall Line...And Increasing Severe Weather Potential...As Forcing Encounters Better Moisture Return Off The Gulf Of Mexico.

Highest Severe Probabilities Still Appear To Exist On Thursday...As The Wave And Associated Squall Line Develop Eastward Along A Warm Front Across The Lower Mississippi Valley.

Surface Dew Points In The Warm Sector Of The Wave May Reach The Mid 60s Across Parts Of Southeast Texas Into Southern Louisiana And Mississippi. Associated Boundary Layer Destabilization On The Southern Periphery Of The Difluent High Level Flow And Mid-Level Height Falls Could Become Supportive Of Discrete Supercells Near/Ahead Of The Squall Line... With A Risk For Tornadoes...In Addition To Damaging Wind Gusts.

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