Severe Weather Threat Feb 19-23

The Latest Medium Range Models And Model Ensembles Remain Fairly Consistent With Runs Over The Past Several Days...Particularly With Regard To A Strong Short Wave Impulse That Appears Likely To Dig Into The California Coast Early Next Week.

A Deep Mid-Level Closed Low May Evolve As The Impulse Migrates Inland...But It Is Expected To Remain Progressive...As Another Impulse Emerges From The Strong Upstream Mid-Latitude Pacific Jet...And Approaches The Pacific Northwest Coast By Mid Week.

In Association With The Lead System...Which Still Appears Likely To
Lift East Northeast Of The Southern Rockies Through The Central
Plains/Mid Missouri Valley Region Late Wednesday Night Through Early Thursday Evening...Significant Surface Cyclogenesis Appears Likely Across The Central Plains.

This May Be Accompanied By Increasing Convective Potential... Including At Least Some Risk For Severe Storms...Across Parts Of The Central And Southern Plains Late Wednesday/Wednesday Night.

However...It Still Appears Most Probable That Severe Weather Potential With This System Will Become Maximized On Thursday...As Daytime Heating Contributes To Destabilization...And Return Flow Continues Off An Increasingly Moist Boundary Layer Over The Gulf Of Mexico.

As This Moisture Overruns A Residual Cool/Stable Boundary Layer
Lingering Over Parts Of The Lower Mississippi Valley And Southeast
...The Moist/Unstable Warm Sector Boundary Layer May Not Become
Particularly Broad.

But It Is Expected To Become Sizable Enough To Support A Significant Risk For Severe Storms...At Least On The Southern Fringe On The More Strongly Difluent High-Level Flow... And Mid-Level Height Falls...Across The Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday Afternoon And Evening.

This May Include The Risk For Supercells With A Few Tornadoes.

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