Severe Weather Threat Feb 13-17

The Prospect For Organized Severe Deep Convection...Greater Than 30
Percent...Will Be Limited During The Upcoming Day4-8 Time Frame... Primarily Due To The Lack Of Meaningful Instability.

Early In The Period Weak Buoyancy Will Spread Inland Across Parts Of The Ern Gulf States/Sern U.S. Which May Lead To A Few Strong Storms
Wednesday From The Fl Panhandle To The Carolina Coast.

However...As Cold Front Sags South Across The Fl Peninsula It Appears Primary Convective Threat Will Be Post Frontal And Lacking Sufficient Lapse Rates/Instability To Warrant Robust Updrafts...Despite Relatively
Strong Deep Layer Shear.

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