Severe Weather Threat Feb 12-16

Substantial Short-Wave Trough Is Forecast By Both The Gfs And Ecmwf
To Translate Across The Gulf States During The Day 4-5 Time Frame.

This Feature May Very Well Induce A Weak Sfc Wave Along Front That
Will Be Draped Near The Gulf Coast.

If This Wave Evolves There Is Some Risk That Sufficient Moisture/ Instability...For Robust Deep Convection...Could Advance Nwd Across The Ern Gulf Coast Into Srn Al/Nrn Fl/Srn Ga Along Srn Fringe Of Stronger Flow Aloft.

Given The Weak Wave And Possible Marginal Instability Will Maintain Less Than 30 Percent Probs For Organized Severe Thunderstorms Across This Region.

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