Severe Weather Threat Feb 1-5

Medium-Range Models Are Consistent Only Through About Day 5...As The Main Central And Ern Noam Trough Shifts Slowly Ewd.

As This Occurs...Models Begin To Diverge With Evolution Of The Next/Upstream System Crossing The Wrn And Central Conus.

While The Gfs Advances A Fairly Strong System Ewd Through The Second Half Of The Period -- With Some Convective/Severe Potential Likely In This Scenario -- The Ecmwf Is Much Weaker With The Surface System.

Thus -- Given The Lack Of Severe Potential Evident Within Either Model Through Day 6 And The Aforementioned Uncertainties Beyond...No Threat Areas Will Be Issued This Forecast.

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