Severe Weather Threat Dec 9-13

Current Runs Of The Medium-Range Models Are In Decent Large-Scale Agreement Through Day 6 /Tue. 12-11/...Maintaining A Large Long-Wave Upper Trough Over The Central Conus.

On The Smaller Scale...A Strong Short-Wave Trough Within The Larger-Scale Feature Is Forecast To Dig Sewd Out Of The Rockies And Into The Central U.S. Day 4 /Sun Dec. 9/...And Then Continue Newd To New England During The Second Half Of Day 5 /Mon. 12-10/.

As This Short-Wave Feature Progresses In A Cyclonic Arc Across The
Central And Ern States...An Accompanying Surface Cold Front Is
Progged To Cross The Ms/Oh/Tn Valleys Through Day 4...And Then
Continue On Ewd Across The Appalachians And Eventually Off The Ern Seaboard By The End Of Day 5.

Given The Strength Of The Upper System And Associated Surface
Front...And Availability Of Low-Level Moisture Advecting Nwd In
Advance...Convective Potential -- In The Form Of Showers And
Scattered Thunderstorms -- Is Evident.

However...With Lapse Rates In The Warm Sector To Remain Weak ...Instability Should Remain Limited.

While Flow Aloft Will Contribute To Shear That Would Otherwise Be Supportive Of Organized Storms...Severe Potential Will Likely Remain Local/Isolated Due To Thermodynamic Limitations.

Thus...Inclusion Of A Threat Area Suggesting A More Widespread/ Substantial Event Appears Unwarranted Attm.

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