Medium-Range Models Show Decent Between-Model Consistency Into The Day 6 Time Frame /Mon. 12-10/...Depicting A Continued Amplification Of Central U.S. Troughing -- Eventually Culminating In The Passage Of A Strong Cold Front Ewd/Off The Atlantic And Gulf Coasts.
While The Models Are Consistent With The Upper Trough And Associated Surface Frontal Progression Into Early Day 6...Differences Increase Drastically Afterward With Respect To Timing And Evolution As The Front Crosses The Appalachians And Approaches The East Coast.
Given This Continued Model Inconsistency -- Both Between The Various Models As Well As Within The Models From Run-To-Run... The Obvious Unpredictability Of The Pattern Does Not Lend Itself To Confident Convective Forecasts...Particularly Beyond Day 5 /Sun. 12-9/.
Some Severe Potential Is Evident Across Parts Of The Srn Plains Day
4 /Sat. 12-8/...And Then Expanding Into The Oh/Tn/Mid And Lower Ms
Valleys And Wrn Gulf Coast Region Day 5...As Frontal Cyclogenesis
Over The Srn Plains Day 4 Shifts Newd Day 5 Along The Baroclinic
Zone -- Allowing A Trailing Cold Frontal Surge To Occur.
With A Seasonably Moist Boundary Layer In Place In The Warm Sector In Conjunction With Moderately Strong Flow Aloft...General Severe Potential Appears Possible. Attm However...Will Opt Not To
Introduce Any Threat Areas Suggesting A More Substantial Severe
Event...As Such A Scenario Currently Appears Unlikely.
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