May 19, 2013
Consistency Within Medium-Range Models Appears To Exist Through The Day 5 Period /Thu. 12-6/...With A Trough Shifting Off The Atlantic Coast Day 4 /Wed. 12-5/ Followed By A Period Of Broadly/ Weakly Cyclonic Flow Over The Conus.
The Ecmwf Amplifies The Flow Substantially Across The U.S. Beginning Day 6...As It Depicts An Evolving Trough Shifting Across The Rockies Toward The Central Conus. This Solution Deviates From The Gfs -- Which Does Not Show Substantial Amplification Occurring Until Later In The Day 7 Period...Roughly 36 Hours Later Than The Ecmwf.
Given The Differences Which Emerge In The Models Beginning Early Day 6...Confidence With Respect To Convective Potential Is Limited To
The First Couple Of Days Of The Period.
Within This Day 4 To Day 5 Time Frame...Little Deep Convective Potential Is Evident...With The Main Feature During This Time Progged To Be The Passage Of The Weaker/Srn Portion Of A Canadian Cold Front Across The Central Conus. With Little To No Instability Progged Ahead Of The Front...Thunderstorms Are Not Expected.
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