Severe Weather Threat Dec 26-30

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With A
Well-Developed Upper-Level Low Over The Oh Valley And The Srn
Extension Of A Negatively-Tiled Upper-Level Trough Over The Ern Gulf
Coast States.

This Setup Would Suggest A Strong Convective System Could Be Ongoing Wednesday Morning/Day 4 Across The Region.

The Models Move The Trough Quickly Ewd Across The Carolinas By Midday. A Severe Threat Could Exist Ahead Of The Trough Axis In The Carolinas Around Midday On Wednesday And Possibly Further North In The Mid-Atlantic Later Wednesday Afternoon.

On Thursday/Day 5...Another Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Develop In The Rockies With This System Moving Across The Cntrl States On Friday/Day 6. Strong Thunderstorms Would Be Possible Ahead Of The Trough Axis In The Lower Ms Valley During The Day On Friday.

Although A Severe Threat Could Exist In The Carolinas And Mid-Atlantic On Wednesday...The Timing Of The Upper-Level Trough
Remains Questionable. For This Reason And For Concerns With Moisture Return Into The Carolinas...A Severe Threat Area Will Not Be Added Attm.

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