Severe Weather Threat Dec 26-30

Posted: Sun 7:11 PM, Dec 23, 2012

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With A
Well-Developed Upper-Level Low Over The Oh Valley And The Srn
Extension Of A Negatively-Tiled Upper-Level Trough Over The Ern Gulf
Coast States.

This Setup Would Suggest A Strong Convective System Could Be Ongoing Wednesday Morning/Day 4 Across The Region.

The Models Move The Trough Quickly Ewd Across The Carolinas By Midday. A Severe Threat Could Exist Ahead Of The Trough Axis In The Carolinas Around Midday On Wednesday And Possibly Further North In The Mid-Atlantic Later Wednesday Afternoon.

On Thursday/Day 5...Another Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Develop In The Rockies With This System Moving Across The Cntrl States On Friday/Day 6. Strong Thunderstorms Would Be Possible Ahead Of The Trough Axis In The Lower Ms Valley During The Day On Friday.

Although A Severe Threat Could Exist In The Carolinas And Mid-Atlantic On Wednesday...The Timing Of The Upper-Level Trough
Remains Questionable. For This Reason And For Concerns With Moisture Return Into The Carolinas...A Severe Threat Area Will Not Be Added Attm.

Tropical Depression Two Slowly Moves Towards Mexico