Severe Weather Threat Dec 19-23

Day 4-5...Models Have Converged On Amplitude And Timing Of A Strong Progressive Shortwave Trough That Will Move Through The Srn Plains Day 4 /Wednesday/...Lower Ms Valley Wednesday Night And Into The Oh Valley And Sern States Day 5 /Thursday/.

This System Will Induce A Strong Surface Low That Will Move From Ks/Ok Wednesday Into The Oh Valley Thursday. A Cold Front Will Sweep Ewd Through The Lower Ms Valley And Sern States In Association With This Feature.

Partially Modified Gulf Air Will Advect Nwd Along A Strong Llj Resulting In Destabilization. However...Instability Will Likely Remain Marginal
Due To Expected Weak Lapse Rates.

Despite The Limited Instability...Expect A Line Of Forced Convection To Develop Wednesday Night Over The Lower Ms Valley And Continue Ewd Through The Tn Valley And Sern States Day 5 /Thursday/.

Given The Strength Of Near-Sfc And Deep-Layer Flow...Damaging Wind May Be A Threat As The Activity Develops Ewd.


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