Severe Weather Threat Dec 18-22

Day 4...Severe Potential Is Expected To Be Low Day 4 As Ern U.S.
Trough And Attendant Cold Front Exit The Ern U.S. Seaboard With
Limited Moisture Inland.

Late Day 5-Day 6...Severe Potential Should Increase Later Day 5 And
Day 6 As Strong Shortwave Trough Drops Sewd And Amplifies Over The Wrn States...Continuing Into The Srn Plains Late Day 5 And The
Lower-Mid Ms And Tn Valleys Day 6.

Deep Cyclogenesis Is Expected In Association With This Feature That Will Advect Partially Modified Gulf Air Nwd Through Pre-Frontal Warm Sector.

The Cyclone Will Move From The Cntrl Plains Day 5 Into The Oh Valley By Day 6. Trailing Cold Front Will Sweep Rapidly Through The Plains Into The Ms And Tn Valleys...Possibly Resulting In A Forced Line Of Severe Storms.

Gfs...Ecmwf...Ukmet Deterministic As Well As The Gefs And Ecmwf
Ensemble Members Are In Reasonable Agreement On General Solution.

However...Differences In Details Exist Among The Models Such As
Amplitude And Timing Of The Trough And Related Intensity Of Sfc Low
Which Will Impact Quality And Extent Of Moisture Return. For This
Reason Will Not Introduce A Higher Coverage Severe Area At This
Time...But Re-Evaluate In Later Outlooks.


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