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Severe Weather Threat Dec 15-19

Medium Range Models Continue To Indicate Strong West Southwesterly Upper Jet Intensification Across The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S. By This Weekend.

This Feature Is Then Forecast To Gradually Propagate East Northeastward Into The Western Atlantic ...As Another Strong Mid-Latitude Jet Noses Inland Off The Pacific ...And Across The U.S. Through The Early To Middle Part Of Next Week.

Confidence Is Fairly High That Vigorous Short Wave Impulses
Associated With These Features Will Contribute To One Or More
Instances Of Strong Surface Cyclogenesis That Could Become Capable Of Supporting A Significant Severe Weather Event.

However...The Spread Among The Various Models And Model Ensemble Data Concerning The Timing And Development Of These Features Remains Much Too Large To Confidently Ascertain The Risk For One Of These Events...And Graphically Delineate A Regional Severe Weather Area.

It Does Seem...Though...That Guidance Is Increasingly Pointing Toward A Rough Corridor Across Louisiana/Mississippi/ Alabama And Georgia...Into The Carolinas...Either Late This Weekend Or Sometime During The Middle Of Next Week.


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