Severe Weather Threat Dec 14-18

Although Modest Spread Persists Among The Various Model Ensemble Data...Confidence In The Development And Track Of A Significant Surface Cyclone Across The Central Plains Toward The Great Lakes Region This Coming Friday/Saturday Is Fairly High.

However...At Least In Part Due To Significant Gulf Moisture Only Being In The Process Of Returning As The System Evolves... Juxtaposition Of The More Favorable Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion And Warm Sector Boundary Layer Destabilization Remains Far From Certain.

Even So...The Risk For Severe Storms May Not Be Out Of The Question...Particularly In A Corridor From West Central Through Northern Texas And Parts Of Southern Oklahoma Late Friday... Through Arkansas/Northern Mississippi/Northern Alabama And Western Middle Tennessee By Late Saturday.

However...The Main Impact Of This Wave May Be To Help Establish Sufficient Moistening...Across The Western/Northern Gulf Of Mexico And Gulf Coast Region...To Contribute To A More Significant Severe Threat With The Next Vigorous Short Wave Impulse...Which May Support Strong Surface Cyclogenesis Across The South Central U.S. Next Monday/Tuesday.

The Spread Among The Medium Range Models And Ensemble Data...Though...Is Still Much Too Large To Confidently Ascertain The Potential For A Region Severe Weather Event...And Graphically Delineate An Area.

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