Severe Weather Threat Dec 13-17

Medium Range Forecast Guidance Continues To Indicate Strong Upper Jet Intensification Across Much Of The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S...With Another Strong Mid Latitude Jet Nosing Inland Across The Pacific Coast During This Forecast Period.

This Will Undoubtedly Lead To An Increasingly Active Pattern...With Embedded Short Wave Impulses Supporting Potential For Periodic Significant Surface Cyclogenesis From The Lee Of The Central And Southern Rockies Eastward To The Atlantic Seaboard...Which Probably Will Become Supportive Of At Least Bouts Of Strong/Severe Storm Development Late This Week Into Next Week.

The Initiation Of Strong Surface Cyclogenesis Appears Possible As
Early As This Coming Friday Across Parts Of The Central/Southern
Plains...As The Short Wave Impulse...Now Beginning To Dig Toward The Pacific Coast...Finally Accelerates Inland.

Based On The 10/00z Ecmwf And Gfs...Severe Weather Potential Appears Greatest From Parts Of West Central Tx Through Northern Texas And Southern Oklahoma Late Friday Afternoon And Evening... Eastward Across Arkansas Overnight...And Parts Of Western And Middle Tennessee/Northern Mississippi And Northern Alabama Saturday.

However...The Spread Among The Model Ensemble Forecasts Has Been And Remains Sizable Concerning This Short Wave Feature. Additionally...While It Does Appear Possible That A Substantive Return Flow Of Moisture Could Develop Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico As The System Develops...Juxtaposition Of The More Favorable Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion And Boundary Layer Destabilization Is Far From Certain.

Predictability Remains Too Low To Confidently Ascertain The Potential For A Regional Severe Weather Event...And Graphically
Delineate An Area.

Thereafter...The Spread Among The Various Models And Model Ensembles Increases Further With Subsequent Developments.


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