Severe Weather Threat Dec 11-15

Models Continue To Indicate The Amplification Of An Upper Impulse
Within A Belt Of Westerlies...Curving Around An Eastern Pacific
Upper Ridge Into Lingering Broad Upper Troughing Over North
America...By The Middle Of Next Week.

As This Feature Digs Toward The California Coast...Guidance Indicates Interaction With A Belt Of Westerlies Emanating From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific...Leading To The Development Of A Strong Upper Jet Across The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S. Late Next Week Into Next Weekend.

It Does Not Appear Out Of The Question That This Initial Impulse Could Contribute To Significant Surface Cyclogenesis To The Lee Of The Central And Southern Rockies Next Friday/ Saturday.

Moisture Return Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico... Coupled With Steepening Mid-Level Lapse Rates...May Contribute To Sufficient Destabilization For A Substantive Increase In Potential For Severe Storm Development From Parts Of The Central And Southern Plains Eastward Into Parts Of The Mid South And Central/ Eastern Gulf States.

However...Uncertainties Remain Far Too Large To Attempt To Ascertain And Delineate The Risk For A Regional Severe Weather Event.


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