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Severe Weather Threat Dec 10-14

Pre-Frontal Moistening...Coupled With Strengthening Deep Layer Mean Flow And Vertical Shear...Will Contribute To Some Increase In
Convective Potential Across Parts Of The Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic
Coast States Monday Into Early Tuesday.

However...Medium Range Models Generally Indicate That...As The Primary Surface Cyclone Migrates Across Eastern Canada...Any Secondary Surface Cyclogenesis Across Or To The East Of The Southern Appalachians Will Remain Fairly Weak.

While The Development Of Severe Weather Potential May Not Be Completely Out Of The Question...Potential At The Moment Appears Too Low To Delineate A Regional Severe Threat Area.

Thereafter...Guidance Does Indicate That Interaction Between A Belt
Of Westerlies Emerging From The Northeast Pacific...And Another
Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific...Will Lead To A
Strengthening Upper Jet Across Much Of The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S. Late Next Week.

This May Be Accompanied By Increasing Potential For Significant Surface Cyclogenesis In Closer Proximity To The Gulf Of Mexico... Which Could Support An Increasing Risk For Severe Thunderstorms ...But Probably Not Until After This Forecast Period.


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