Severe Weather Threat Day Oct 14-18

Deterministic Models And Ensemble Members Appear To Be In Good
Agreement Regarding Evolution Of A Wrn/Cntrl U.S. Upper Trough
Through Monday /Day 4/ But Become Increasingly Dispersive Beyond
This Period.

Monday /Day 4/ Model Consensus Is That A Shortwave Trough Will Eject From The Cntrl High Plains Early Monday...Newd Into The Upper Ms Valley By The End Of The Period.

It Appears That Considerable Warm Advection Showers And Storms Will Be Ongoing Across The Cntrl Plains And Persist Into A Good Part Of The Day. While Some Destabilization May Occur Upstream From This Activity Across Wrn Ks Where Additional Storms /Some Possibly Severe/ May Develop Along The Sewd Advancing Cold Front...Too Much Uncertainty Exists Regarding Degree Of Instability To Delineate A 30% Probability Or Greater Severe Threat Area At This Time.

However...Severe Probabilities Will Probably Need To Be Introduced During The Next Day 3 Update.

Tuesday /Day 5/ The Low Should Occlude Over The Upper Ms Valley ...And The Warm Sector Will Be Shunted South And East Of The
Stronger Winds Aloft. Moreover...Lapse Rates And Instability Will
Probably Be Somewhat Limited.

While A Few Strong Storms Cannot Be Ruled Out From The Mid-Ms Valley Swwd Into The Srn Plains Along The Sewd Advancing Cold Front...Overall Threat Appears Marginal At This Time.

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