Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Wed Sep 4

Little Change To The Large-Scale Pattern Is Expected From Tuesday
Into Wednesday Across The Eastern Pacific Through Much Of Western And Central North America. A Significant Closed Near The Pacific Northwest Coast Appears Likely To Remain Cut-Off From The Stronger Westerlies Through Much Of The Period. However...Models Suggest Some Eastward Development Of The Circulation Center Toward The Coast Late Wednesday Night...With The Trough Axis Trailing To The South Taking On More Of A Negative Tilt Along The Oregon Coast.

It Is Still A Bit Unclear Whether This Is In Response To Perturbations
Pivoting Around The Circulation Center...Or The Influence Of A
Significant Upstream Impulse Digging Into Broader Scale Troughing
Within The Westerlies Across The East Central Pacific. Regardless... Following Weak Mid-Level Height Rises Much Of The Day Wednesday ...At Least Gradual Falls Appear Possible Across The
Northern Intermountain Region Overnight.

To The East...Downstream Of The Ridge Axis Extending To The North Of The Central Rockies Subtropical High Center...Upper Troughing Within The Primary Belt Of Westerlies Is Forecast To Amplify Southward Through Much Of The Northeast. This Is Expected To Be Accompanied By A Reinforcing Intrusion Of Dry/Cool Air...While The Preceding Front Remains Stalled Across The South Atlantic Coast...Westward Through The Gulf States.

Highest Thunderstorm Probabilities East Of The Rockies On Wednesday Will Generally Be Focused Along And South Of This Southern Boundary...With Considerable Afternoon And Evening Thunderstorm Activity Again Likely Across Much Of The Intermountain West And Rockies.

Northern Intermountain Region...

Although Stronger Mid/Upper Forcing For Convective Development
Probably Will Not Arrive Until Well After Boundary Layer Instability
Begins To Wane Wednesday Night...At Least Widely Scattered Storm
Development Is Expected During The Late Afternoon And Evening
/00-06z Time Frame/.

Uncertainty Remains Too Large Concerning The Degree Of Destabilization On The Broader Scale To Outlook Slight Risk Probabilities At The Present Time. However...Deep Layer Shear Beneath Seasonably Modest To Strong Southerly Mid/Upper Flow
Probably Will Be More Than Sufficient To Enhance Storms That Do
Form...With Isolated Supercells Possible.


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