Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Wed Jun 12

An Upper Trough Centered Over The Pac Nw Is Forecast To Make Slow Ewd Progress Day 3...While Troughing Also Persists Over Ern Canada And Into New England.

Between These Two Features...Broad Ridging Will Prevail Across Much Of The Conus. Within The Ridge However...A Fairly Strong Short-Wave Trough Is Forecast To Traverse The Midwest/Oh Valley Region Through The Period.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Is Forecast To Make Ewd Progress
Across The Nwrn Portion Of The Country In Conjunction With The
Advancing Upper Trough...And A Low/Frontal System Will Likewise
Shift Across The Midwest In Tandem With The Midwestern Upper System.

The Midwest...

As The Potent Short-Wave Trough Crosses The Midwest...Expect Showers And Thunderstorms To Increase Through The Afternoon... Within An Airmass Acquiring Moderate Instability In Conjunction With Daytime Heating. The Gfs And Nam Differ With Surface Frontal Evolution/Low Position Across This Area...So Details Remain Difficult To Determine...But In General A Relatively Broad Zone Of At Least
Isolated Hail/Wind Potential Is Evident Given Moderate Wly Winds
Within The Lower To Middle Troposphere Across This Region. Once
Details Become A Bit More Clear...More Substantial Wind Threat May
Become Evident Across Parts Of This Area...Which Would Warrant
Increased Probabilities In Later Forecasts.

Nrn Intermountain Region...

Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms Are Forecast To Develop During The Afternoon As Modest Destabilization Occurs Across The Mt/Nrn Wy Vicinity. Though This General Lack Of More Substantial Instability Will Limit Convective Intensity/Severe Threat...Relatively Strong Mid-Level Swlys Should Contribute To Shear Sufficient For A Few Stronger Storms -- And Associated Threat For Isolated Damaging Gusts And Marginal Hail.

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