Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Wed Dec 26

Carolinas/Ern Gulf Coast States/Mid-Atlantic...

An Impressive Negatively-Tilted Upper-Level System Is Forecast To
Move Quickly Newd Across The Atlantic Coastal Region On Wednesday.

An Upper-Level Low Over The Mid Ms Valley At Daybreak On Wednesday Should Move Newd Across The Oh Valley As A Slab Of Very Strong Large-Scale Ascent Moves From The Ern Gulf Coast States Ewd Across The Carolinas Wednesday Afternoon.

Due To The Strong Forcing...A Well-Developed Squall-Line Should Be Ongoing At 12z On Wednesday With This Linear Convective System Remaining Intact All The Way To The Coast.

Forecast Soundings At 21z/Wed Ahead Of The Squall-Line In Ern Nc And Ncntrl Sc Show Increasing Instability During The Late Morning And Early Afternoon With Sfc Dewpoints Reaching The Lower 60s F.

This May Allow Moderate Instability To Develop Across Parts Of The Ern Carolinas Wednesday Afternoon. In Addition...A Well-Developed
Low-Level Jet Combined With A Powerful Mid-Level Jet Wrapping Around The Upper-Level Low Will Create Strong Deep Layer Shear Profiles Favorable For Severe Storms.

Across Much Of The Region...Winds In The Boundary Layer Are Forecast To Exceed 50 Kt Just Above The Sfc Which Should Enable Any Line Of Storms To Be Efficient At Producing Wind Damage.

If Discrete Cells Can Initiate Ahead Of The Approaching Squall-Line ...Then A Substantial Tornado Threat Could Also Develop Wednesday Afternoon With The Potential For A Strong Tornado.

Considering The Strength Of The Upper-Level System Which Combined With Moderate Instability And Strong Deep Layer Shear... Any Severe Threat That Develops Across The Carolinas Could Become Enhanced. For This Reason...A 30 Percent Severe Probability With A Significant Hatched Area Appears Warranted.

Further To The North Across The Mid-Atlantic...Any Severe Threat
With The Line Of Storms Should Be More Isolated Due To Weakening
Instability With Nwd Extent.

To The South Across Ern Ga And Nrn Fl...A Substantial Wind Damage Threat Could Exist But The Threat Should Decrease With Swd Extent Due To Weaker Large-Scale Ascent And Deep Layer Shear.

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