Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Wed Dec 12

Synopsis...

The Spread Among The Model Ensemble Data Increases Considerably During The Forecast Period Concerning Short Wave Developments Within A Splitting Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Northeast Pacific. But Of Two Distinct Branches...The Southern One Still Is Forecast To Be The More Amplified...With A Significant Short Wave Trough Expected To Continue To Dig Southward Near Or Just West Of The California Coast And Northern Baja.

A Closed Mid-Level Circulation May Form Near The Central California Coast...And The Larger-Scale Trough May Begin Interacting With A Belt Of Westerlies Propagating Eastward Across The Subtropical Eastern Pacific.

As All Of This Occurs...Upper Ridging Is Expected To Continue Building Downstream...Across Much Of The Central And Southern Tier
States...While Remnant Upper Troughing Rapidly Lifts Out Of The
Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast Region... And East Of
The South Atlantic Coast By 12z Thursday.

The Speed Of This Latter Feature Could Impact Convective Potential
For Wednesday And Wednesday Night Across Parts Of The
Southeast...Mainly The Central/Southern Florida Peninsula.

A Moist Environment Will Linger Ahead Of A Cold Front Expected To Advance Into The Central Peninsula Early In The Day...And Through The Remainder Of The Peninsula By The End Of The Period.

However...It Currently Appears That Weakening Convergence Along The Front Will Limit Convective Potential Across Inland Areas. Coupled With The Rather Modest Nature Of The Anticipated Vertical Shear And Instability...The Risk For Severe Storms Appears Negligible At The Present Time.


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