Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Wed Aug 28

Oh Valley/Cntrl Appalachians...

Large Scale Upper High Should Move Little Through The Day3 Period
Though Heights Are Expected To Fall Across The Nern U.S. As
Troughing Amplifies Across This Region.

Part Of This Amplification Process In The Nern U.S. Is In Response To A Ridge-Topping Short-Wave Trough That Will Turn Sewd Across The Great Lakes During The Day2 Period Before Digging Into The Oh Valley. This Feature Is Expected To Be Partly Responsible For Ascent That Should Encourage Sct Convection Across The Oh Valley Into The Middle Atlantic Region Wednesday.

Where Sfc Heating Will Be Maximized...Primarily West Of The Appalachians...Lapse Rates Are Expected To Be Somewhat Steeper
And This May Enhance The Downdraft Potential With Convection That
Evolves Over This Region. For This Reason Have Introduced 5 Percent Severe Probs Where Tstms May Evolve Beneath Strengthening Nwly Flow Aloft.

Nrn High Plains...

Latest Nam Guidance Suggests A Weak Short-Wave Trough May Suppress The Ridge Across The Nrn High Plains Of Ern Mt/Wrn Nd Wednesday Afternoon. Even So This Feature Will Be Subtle And The Primary Factor In Potential Convective Development Will Be Strong Heating Along And East Of Lee Trough That Will Orient Itself From Srn
Ab...Sewd Across Mt Toward The Black Hills Of Nern Wy.

Isolated High Based Storms Could Evolve During The Heat Of The Day Across This Region And With Llj Expected To Increase Across The Wrn Dakotas During The Evening. There Is Some Potential For A Few Storms To Produce Gusty Winds/Hail...Especially If Aforementioned Short-Wave Trough Aids Ascent During This Time Period.


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