Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Sep 3

The Stronger Westerlies Appear Likely To Remain Confined To The
Higher Latitudes...Curving Anticyclonically Around Broader Upper
Ridging Across The Northeastern Pacific...Through Yukon And The
Northwest Territories Of Canada...Into Areas Southwest Of Hudson
Bay.

As A Result...Any Movement Of The Closed Low Off The Pacific
Northwest Coast Through This Period Likely Will Be Minor...And
Mostly In Response To Smaller Scale Perturbations Rotating Around
The Circulation Center.

Downstream...Models Indicate Further Strengthening Of The Subtropical High Center Will Occur Across The Central Rockies...With A Ridge Extending To The North Continuing To Build Toward The Canadian Rockies.

Farther East...Upper Troughing Across Southeastern Canada And The Northeastern U.S. Is Forecast To Become Increasing Sheared While Slowly Shifting Eastward...As A Strong Short Wave Trough Within The Westerlies Digs South Of Hudson Bay.

In Response To These Developments...A Significant Intrusion Of
Cooler/Drier Low-Level Air Is Expected To Continue To Advance
Eastward And Southward Through The Central And Eastern U.S...
Generally Confining The Risk For Thunderstorm Activity To Atlantic
And Gulf Coastal Areas.

Otherwise...Considerable Thunderstorm Activity Does Appear Likely Tuesday Across The Intermountain West And Rockies...Where Monsoonal Moisture Will Continue To Increase.

Northern New England...

Considerable Uncertainty Exists Concerning The Evolution Of The
Approaching Upper Trough. However...Potential For Substantive
Convective Destabilization On Tuesday Appears To Exist...As Models
Suggest A Mid-Level Dry Slot May Overspread A Relatively Moist
Pre-Frontal Environment. Forecast Soundings Certainly Suggest Deep Layer Shear Will Become Favorable For Organized Convective
Development...Including Supercells...If Sufficient Boundary Layer
Destabilization Occurs.

Northern Intermountain Region...

Models Indicate The Development Of Long Hodographs/Strong Deep Layer Shear Sufficient For Supercells Tuesday Across Parts Of Eastern Washington And Northeast Oregon Into The Northern Rockies. It Remains Unclear If Moistening Will Become Sufficient To Support Appreciable Cape...But It Appears That Forcing Associated With A Short Wave Impulse Pivoting Around The Low May Become Favorably Timed With Peak Afternoon Heating.

Southern Plateau...

Low-Level Moistening Sufficient For Vigorous Convective Development May Occur Across Portions Of Southern Arizona...But Seems Likely To Remain Generally South Of The Phoenix Metro Area. A Couple Of Storms Within This Regime May Be Capable Of Producing Strong Wind Gusts...As Deep Boundary Layer Mixing Occurs By Late Afternoon.


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