Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Sep 17

Strengthening/Amplifying Westerlies Are Expected Over The Northwest Quadrant Of The Conus On Tuesday...With A Considerable Upper Trough Expected To Spread East-Northeastward Over The Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region.

Mt And Adjacent Intermountain Region/Western Dakotas...

Appreciable Height Falls/Forcing For Ascent Are Expected To
Overspread The Region Especially Tuesday Afternoon Into Tuesday
Night In Association With The Aforementioned Upper Trough.

Current Thinking Is That Storms Will Initially Develop Over The Higher
Terrain/Divide Vicinity Of Mt Tuesday Afternoon...With Subsequent
Development/Persistence Into Additional Parts Of Eastern Mt Tuesday
Evening. The Boundary Layer Will Not Be Particularly Moist Or Unstable ...But Adequate Moisture/Steepening Lapse Rates Should Allow For Some Stronger/Possibly Severe Tstms By Tuesday Afternoon. Amid Strengthening Mid-Level Southwesterly Winds... Vertical Shear Should Be Sufficient /35-40 Kt Deep Layer/ For Some Organized Storms Potentially Including A Few Supercells/Sustained Linear Segments...With Severe Hail/Wind Possible.

Subsequent Outlooks Will Also Reevaluate The Need Of Possible Low Severe Probabilities Across Additional Portions Of The Central
Rockies/Eastern Great Basin.


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