Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Sep 10

New York/Vermont...

A Shortwave Trough And An Associated Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Quickly Ewd Across The Great Lakes Region On Tuesday. Ahead Of The Front Tuesday Afternoon...The Models Develop Moderate Instability Along A Corridor Of Low-Level Moisture Extending Newd From The Oh Valley Into The Nrn Appalachian Mtns.

Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Ahead Of The Front In Ny And Vermont As The Upper-Level Trough Approaches From The West. Forecast Soundings At 00z/Wed For Syracuse Ny And Burlington Vt Show Mlcape In The 1500 To 2500 J/Kg Range With About 40 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear Suggesting Supercell Development May Occur If Storms Can Remain Discrete. In This Case...Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts Would Be The Primary Threats.

If The Preferred Storm Mode Ends Up Being Linear...Then Wind Damage Would Be The Favored Threat. At This Point...Enough Uncertainty Exists Concerning The Timing Of The Shortwave Trough And The Amount Of Instability To Keep Severe Probabilities At 5 Percent.

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