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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Oct 29

An Amplified Large-Scale Pattern Will Continue Over The Conus On
Tuesday...Accentuated By An Increasingly Eastward-Progressive Upper Trough Over The Rockies/Southwest States. The Influences Of This Trough Coincident With A Very Moist Airmass /For The Season/ Across The South-Central Conus Will Lead To Tstm Potential Across The Central/Southern Plains To The Lower/Middle Mo River Valley And
Middle Ms Valley...Including A Risk For At Least Some Severe Tstms.

Southern/Central Plains To Lower/Middle Mo Valley...

Influenced By Lee Side Troughing And Southeast States Anticyclone ...Persistent Southerly Low-Level Trajectories And An Increasingly Moist Source Region Airmass Will Maintain A Relatively High Moisture Content Boundary Layer Across Much Of The Southern/ Central Plains...With A Gradual Eastward-Expansion Across The Mid Ms Valley/Ozarks. This Moisture Will Likely Contribute To A Moderately Unstable Airmass To The East Of A Southern High Plains Surface Low And Lee Trough/Dryline...And To The South/Southeast Of What Will Likely Be A Convectively Reinforced Frontal Boundary Across Parts Of Ks And The Adjacent Lower Mo Valley/Middle Ms Valley.

That Said...Uncertainties Exist Regarding The Timing/Magnitude Of
The Severe Potential Over The Region...Especially Given Guidance
Variability And The General Positive Tilt Of The Upstream Rockies
Upper Trough.

Of Note...The 00z Deterministic Gfs Features A Faster/More Eastward Solution Of The Western States Trough As Compared To The More Similar 00z Ecmwf/Nam Guidance. These Differences Influence The Spatial/Temporal Variability Of The Primary Severe Potential.

This Would Generally Be A Later/More Nocturnal Risk Per The 00z Nam/Ecwmf Versus A Greater Likelihood Of Possible Deep Convective Development Near Peak-Heating With The Earlier-Timed 00z Gfs.

Regardless...A Very Moist/Unstable Airmass Will Reside To The East
Of The High Plains Surface Low And Lee Trough/Dry Line...With Strong Vertical Shear /40-55 Kt/ Overspreading The Warm Sector.

While Guidance Variability Remains Considerable...And Mass Convergence May Remain Modest Into Early Evening...Current Thinking Is That At Least A Conditional/Isolated-Type Severe Risk Will Exist.

This Would Mainly Be Across The Southern High Plains Tuesday Afternoon/Early Evening...Or More Certainly By Late Evening/Overnight Across The Southern High Plains/Lower Mo Valley As Stronger Forcing For Ascent Influences The Region.


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