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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue May 28

The Upper Pattern On Tuesday Is Characterized As Compromising Of
Several Shortwave Impulses Embedded Within Broad Swly Flow Over The Plains/Midwest Downstream Of An Amplifying Wrn U.S. Upper Trough. A Surface Low Over The Cntrl High Plains Will Remain Quasi-Stationary As Moist Sly Low Level Flow Intensifies --E Of A North-South Dryline-- From Tx Nwd Into The Cntrl Plains And Midwest During The Period. A Warm Frontal Zone Is Forecast To Advance Nwd Over A Portion Of The Midwest And Into The Great Lakes Region. Farther W...A Surface Trough Will Extend To Another Low Over Wy.

Plains...

Strengthening H5 Flow Over A Large Portion Of The Plains And
Widespread Mid 60s Boundary Layer Dewpoints E Of The Dryline Will
Potentially Be More Favorable For Strong/Severe Storms Tuesday
Compared To Prior Day/S. Models Show A Plume Of Steep H7-H5 Lapse Rates /In Excess Of 8 Deg C/Km/ Enveloping A Large Part Of The Srn-Cntrl Plains Into The Mid Mo Valley Region. Coupled With Strong Diurnal Heating In Wake Of Any Early Day Tstm Activity --Most Likely Over The Mid-Lower Mo Valley-- Will Probably Result In A Moderate To Very Unstable Airmass By Peak Heating /2000-3500 J/Kg Mlcape/.

Organized Strong-Severe Storms Capable Of Large Hail/Dmgg Winds And A Few Tornadoes Would Be Possible With The More Intense Supercells/Linear Structures. A 50 Kt Llj Is Forecast To Develop Over The Cntrl Plains By Evening...And Likely Aid In Sustaining An Isold Severe Threat Into The Overnight.

Midwest/Wrn Great Lakes...

A Belt Of Strong Swly H85 Flow Will Serve As The Primary Impetus For
Increasing Low Level Moisture With Dewpoints Rising Into The 60s.
This Will Occur Coincident With A Nwd Advancing Warm Front And
Result In A Destabilizing Airmass.

Isold Occurrences Of Large Hail And Dmgg Winds Will Be The Primary Threats With These Storms... But A Few Tornadoes Are Possible...Especially If Surface-Based Storms Can Develop/Root Near The Warm Front In A Stronger Low Level Shear Environment.


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