Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue May 14

A De-Amplifying Upper Flow Field Is Forecast Across The U.S. This
Period...As The Large Ern Noam Trough Continues Ewd Into Ern Canada And The Wrn Atlantic. Meanwhile...The Wrn U.S. Trough Will Also Continue Ewd Across The N Central U.S. -- Remaining Low-Amplitude As Downstream Ridging Persists.

At The Surface...
A Cold Front Is Forecast To Shift Sewd Across The N Central U.S. And Into The Central Plains...As A Surface Low Tracks Enewd From Nd To Wrn Ontario. This Low Is Expected To Occlude With Time...With A Triple Point Shifting Ewd From Nrn Wi To Nrn Lower Mi Through The Second Half Of The Period. Most Of The Thunderstorm Activity Associated With This System Is Progged To Remain N Of The Triple Point/To The Cool Side Of The Warm Front Within The Zone Of Isentropic Lift.

Nrn Upper Great Lakes Region...

With Short-Wave Ridging Progged To Persist Across The Warm Sector In Advance Of The Surface Cold Front...Subsidence/Capping Is Expected To Hinder Potential For Convective Development Along The Advancing Cold Front.

With Steep Lapse Rates Aloft Contributing To Abundant Cape And With Favorably Strong Flow Aloft Expected As Far S As Nrn Ia...Any Breaches In The Cap Resulting In Deep Moist Convection Would Yield Almost Certain Severe Potential. However...Models Remain Consistent In Hindering Storm Development Along The Cold Front Due To The Aforementioned Capping -- And Thus Will Extend Only
Low /5%/ Severe Probability Swwd Across Sern Mn/Nrn Ia.

More Certain Convective Development Is Forecast Across Upper Mi And Nrn Lower Mi...Within The Warm Advection Zone N Of The Surface Warm Front. Here...Strong Flow Aloft And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates May Support A Few Stronger/Elevated Storms -- And Associated Hail Potential Through The Evening/Overnight Hours.


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