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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Mar 19

The Eastern Half Of The Conus Will Be Under The Influence Of
Cyclonic Upper Flow On Tuesday With A Broad Cyclone Centered Over The Great Lakes Region. Zonal Upper Flow/Subtle Shortwave Ridging Will Exist Over The Western Conus In Advance Of Dual Shortwave Troughs Approaching The West Coast By Early Wednesday.

The Primary Tstm Potential For The Period Will Be Associated With An
East-Southeastward Moving Cold Front Across The Coastal Southeast States/Fl.

Coastal Carolinas/Ga And Fl...

Current Indications Are That Scattered Showers/Some Tstms Will
Accompany The Aforementioned Cold Front Tuesday Morning Across The Coastal Carolinas/Ga And North Fl.

While The Front/Associated Convection Will Likely Clear The Coastal Carolinas/Ga During The Morning...The Front Will Otherwise Continue To Spread Southeastward Across The Fl Peninsula During The Day.

Veering Low-Level Flow And The Weakening Nature Of The Front... Along With Seemingly Limited Broad Scale Ascent...Puts Into The Question The Coverage/Southward Extent Of Tstms Across Fl During The Day. However...The Possible Influence Of The East Coast Sea Breeze In Conjunction With The Front...And Moderate Cape With Relatively Steep Lapse Rates In The Presence Of Cool Temperatures Aloft /Around -13c Or -14c At 500 Mb/...Suggest Some Possibility For Strong/Possibly Severe Tstms Capable Of Hail Tuesday Afternoon.

Portions Of The Fl Peninsula Will Be Reevaluated In Subsequent Outlooks For The Possible Inclusion Of Low Severe Probabilities.

Southern Plains...

Across The Southern Plains Potentially Including Portions Of Ok/ North Tx...A Stray Tstm Or Two Might Be Possible At The End Of The Period Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday In Association With A Warm
Advection Regime. However...This Currently Seems Like A Very Low
Probability Scenario /Sub-10 Percent/ Given The Modest Nature Of The Forcing And Likely Strength Of The Cap.

West Coast...

Bands Of Showers May Reach Coastal Wa/Ore And Northern Ca Late
Tuesday/Early Wednesday In Association With Eastward-Advancing
Shortwave Troughs/Cold Front. The Potential For Embedded Tstms
Currently Appears Low Given The Forecast Thermodynamic Environment.


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