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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Jun 18

An Amplified Upper-Level Trough Will Penetrate Inland Across The
Northwest...With A Downstream Ridge Shifting Gradually Ewd Over The High Plains. A Vigorous Shortwave Impulse Should Progress Ewd Across Parts Of Ontario/Quebec Within A Broader Sern Canadian Trough. This Should Help Eject A Lingering Vort Max Over The Srn Canadian Prairies Towards The Upper Oh Valley By Early Wed. At The Surface...A Weak Cold Front Should Push Sewd Across New England To The Oh Valley. A Composite Front/Outflow Should Become Quasi-Stationary Across The Srn Plains.

High Plains...

Low-Level Upslope Flow Will Strengthen In Advance Of The Upper-Level Trough Entering The Northwest. This Should Result In 50s Surface Dew Points Overspreading The Lee Of The Rockies. At Least Isolated Tstms Should Form Tue Afternoon Across The Higher Terrain And Generally Move E/Newd Into The Evening.

The Greatest Risk For Supercells Is Apparent Over Parts Of The Cntrl/Srn High Plains Where A Belt Of Confluent Mid/Upper-Level Flow Should Result In Moderate To Strong Effective Shear...Further Enhanced By The Probable Presence Of A Composite Front/Outflow In The Wake Of Preceding Days Of Convection.

Farther N...A More Prominent Ridge Should Yield Weaker High-Level
Flow...Resulting In Marginal Effective Shear For Supercells...And May Also Serve To Limit Tstm Coverage.

Northeast...Oh Valley...Lower Mid-Atlantic...

Moderate Mid-Level Cyclonic Flow Will Persist In Association With
The Broad Trough Centered Over Sern Canada. Presence Of A Weak Cold Front And Modest Large-Scale Ascent Downstream Of An Impulse Approaching From The Upper Midwest Should Foster Scattered Convection Tue Afternoon/Evening. Guidance Does Differ Substantially With The Spatial Extent Of Weak Buoyancy...Which Appears Tied To An Mcv That May Originate From A Plains Mcs On D1.

The 00z Gfs/Cmc And The Wrf-Arw Control Member Of The 21z Sref Suggest That Any Severe Potential Would Be Limited To The Lower Mid-Atlantic. While...The 00z Ecmwf/Nam/Ukmet Indicate A Broader Area Of Weak Buoyancy To The Cold Front. In Any Case...Relatively Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Serve To Marginalize The Severe Wind/Hail Risk.


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