Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Jul 23

Models Are In Good Agreement Showing A Low Amplitude Shortwave
Trough Moving Sewd From The Nrn Plains Into The Mid Ms River Valley During The Day On Tue...On The Back Side Of A Broad Ern U.S. Trough And E Of The Wrn U.S. Ridge.

At The Surface...A Front Will Lie Roughly Along The Ks/Ok Border Into Srn Mo And Il By Late Afternoon. Models Indicate Two Areas Of Low Pressure...One Across Il Near The Primary Upper Vort Max...And Another Across Swrn Ks/Ok Panhandle Induced By Hot Temperatures.

Along And S Of The Synoptic Front...Strong Instability Will Be Present Along With Mid To Upper 60s F Boundary Layer Dewpoints.

Cntrl Plains Into The Mid Ms/Lower Oh Valley...

While Specific Details Remain Unclear Due To Substantial Model
Differences...Scattered Thunderstorms Appear Likely During The Day
And Into The Evening From Ks/Ok Ewd Into Mo...Nrn Ar And Il.

Modest Nwly Flow Aloft Combined With Sly Sfc Winds S Of The Front Should Prove Favorable For A Few Clusters Of Organized Severe
Thunderstorms.

Depending On The Track And Amplitude Of The Shortwave Trough...A More Substantial Severe Threat Could Materialize Across Mo And Into Il. N/S Placement Of The Front Across Ks Appears In Question As Well...Thus Will Defer Any Slight Risk Upgrade To Later Outlooks.

Wrn Sd/Neb...

Isolated Hail Will Be Possible By Peak Heating From The Black Hills
Into Wrn Neb/Ern Wy Near A Narrow Plume Of Instability And Where Low Level Lapse Rates Will Be Steep. Nwly Flow Aloft Increasing With
Height Would Conditionally Favor Marginally Severe Hail...Dissipating During The Evening.


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