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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Jul 16

Nern Nd/Nrn Mn...

A Few Thunderstorms May Develp During The Late Afternoon And Evening Hours. This Will Occur Mainly Over Far Nern Nd Into Nwrn Mn. Westerly Mid Level Winds Of 35-40 Kt Will Provide Sufficient
Vertical Shear For A Few Organized Multicells And Perhaps An
Isolated Supercell To Develop...With Stronger Cells Capable Of
Producing Gusty Winds And Hail. Will Introduce A 5% Probability
Into The Outlook But Overall Limited Spatial Extent Of Severe Threat
And Concerns About Capping Preclude A Categorical Slight Risk Attm.

Nrn Intermountain Region...

Stronger Swly Mid Level Winds Are Forecast To Spread Newd On Monday As The Short Wave Trough Lifts Newd Across Parts Of Oregon And Wa. Steep Lapse Rates And A Deep Pbl Will Enhance
Potential For Strong Wind Gusts With A Few Storms.

Sern Az/Swrn Nm...

Nely Mid Level Winds Will Shift Wwd From Wrn Nm Into Ern Az As The
Upper Low Continues Across Srn Nm. Widespread Clouds And Convection Are Expected To Affect Much Of The Area During The Day And Inhibit Diurnal Heating And Destabilization. However...There Will Likely Be Localized Areas Of Fewer Clouds Where Stronger Heating May Occur...And Coupled With Terrain Focused Lift Over Ern Parts Of The Rim And Mtns Of Sern Az...A Few Stronger Storms Capable Of Producing Wet Microbursts May Move Swwd Over The Area.


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