May 21, 2013
Tx...
Latest Short-Range Model Guidance Continues To Suggest Upper Low Over Nrn Mexico Will Begin To Eject Ewd During The Day3 Period As Mid Level Speed Max Rotates Toward The Middle Rio Grande River Valley Late.
In Response To This Feature It Appears Low Level Trajectories Will Become Favorable For Nwd Advancement Of Maritime Tropical Airmass Across Deep South Tx/Lower Tx Coast.
As Sfc Dew Points Rise Into The Upper 60s Thermodynamic Profiles Should Become Increasingly Favorable For Sfc-Based Convection Within A Sheared Environment Increasingly Favorable For Sustained Rotating Updrafts.
As Coastal/Warm Front Advances Inland Buoyancy Should Increase Such That Isolated Supercells Are Possible...Both Across The Warm Sector And Perhaps Just North Of The Front Where Strong Low-Mid Level Shear Will Be Present. Strengthening Llj Ahead Of The Pacific Front Will Encourage A Substantial Amount Of Convection/ Precipitation Across Tx With Tstm Activity Across Cntrl/Nrn Tx Elevated And Less Buoyant In Nature.
Isolated Tornadoes May Occur With Near-Sfc Based Activity And Marginally Severe Hail May Also Accompany The Strongest Convection. Nwd Extent Of Severe Will Be Limited By Cooler Boundary Layer Conditions Associated With Substantial Precipitation Beneath The Warm Conveyor.
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