Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Jan 29

A Potent High Amplitude Upper Trough And Associated Cold Front Will Sweep East And South Across The Plains/Midwest And Lower Ms Valley From Tuesday Into Early Wednesday.

This System Could Produce A Fairly Widespread Swath Of Severe Weather From Cntrl And Nern Tx...Nrn La...Across Much Of Ar And Sern Mo...And East And South Across The Ms River From Il To Ms.

While It Is Too Early To Be Overly Detailed Regarding The Character Of This Event...The Size...Strength...And Rapid Evolution Of The Large Scale Trough System...As Currently Forecast...Suggests The Development Of An Extensive And Fast-Moving Squall Line Capable Of Producing Damaging Winds Across Some Or All Of The Above Mentioned Areas From Around Mid-Day Tuesday Into Early Wednesday.

Tx To Il Southeast Across The Lower Ms Valley...

Prefer The Somewhat Slower And Not So Phased Depiction Of The Upper Trough As Shown By Latest Ecmwf And Nam Through Early Tuesday.

These Scenarios Indicate A Moist But Generally Weak To Moderately Unstable Airmass Will Be Situated From Tx Newd Across Mo And Into Il By Tuesday Afternoon. Lack Of Stronger Instability Will Likely Be
Compensated For By Relatively Rapid Onset Of Intense Ascent
Associated With The Approach Of Mid/Upper Trough And 100kt Mid Level Speed Max Spreading Out Across The Warm Sector To Near Arlatex By Around 00z.

Deep Convection Will Erupt Along The Entire Length Of The Sharpening Cold Front Through The Late Afternoon With Storms
Coming Under The Influence Of Ever Increasing Deep-Layer Shear/Flow.

Extensive Qlcs Appears Likely To Spread East Across The Mid/Lower Ms Valley Into Tuesday Night With Cell Motions Forecast In Excess Of
50kt Leading Damaging Winds.

Lack Of Stronger Cyclonic Development Along The Cold Front Suggests Linear Mode Should Dominate But Supercells And Lewps Embedded In The Line And Near Transient Frontal Wave Structures Would Pose Some Tornado Threat With Time.

Uncertainties Regarding Overall Timing And Degree Of Surface-Based Destabilization Preclude Higher Or Significant Probabilities At This Forecast Range. However...Future Upgrade To Mdt Risk Seems Possible If These Details Become Clearer.


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