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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Feb 5

Breakdown Of The Persistent Upper-Level Ridge In The Wrn Conus Will Occur On Tue As A Low-Amplitude Short Wave Trough Progresses Inland From The Nern Pacific.

A Short Wave Impulse Expected To Be Invof The Gulf Of Ca At 12z Tue Should Dampen As It Moves Ewd Towards The Lower Rio Grande Valley.

A Weak Cold Front Will Settle Sewd Across The Southeast To The Cntrl Gulf Coast As A Clipper-Type Short Wave Trough Shifts From The Upper Ms Valley To The Mid-Atlantic Coast By Early Wed.

Lower Rio Grande Valley/S Tx...

In Concurrence With Hpc Pmdhmd...Consensus Of Non-Nam Guidance Suggest Forcing For Ascent Will Increase Tue Evening/ Night With Approach Of The Dampening Short Wave Impulse From Baja Ca.

Guidance Differs Substantially With The Degree Of Instability And Available Buoyancy Ahead Of This Impulse...But It Appears Probable That Modest Response Of Low-Level Elys Should Occur And Would Likely Yield Sufficient Mucape For Tstm Development /Especially Tue Night/.

Effective Shear May Be Adequate For A Marginal Risk Of Hail...But
Given The Aforementioned Uncertainty Over How Unstable The Air Mass Should Be...Will Refrain From Introducing Severe Probabilities Attm.

Cntrl Gulf Coast...

A Continuation Of Low-End Tstm Potential May Persist Into The First
Half Of The Period From D2...Along A Weak Cold Front Moving Sewd
Across The Region.

Buoyancy Should Remain Meager As Mid-Level Lapse Rates Hold Around 6 Deg C/Km...Precluding Any Appreciable Severe Threat.


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